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当机器成为超级智能人类该何去何从

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  Schumpeter:Techno wars
 
  熊彼德:“铁克诺”之战
 
  An earlier sunny mood about technology and innovation has given way to pessimism.
 
  在技能与立异范畴,失望主义替代了从前的达观情绪。
 
  The most striking battle in modern business pits the techno-optimists against the techno-pessimists.
 
  在现代商业中,高新技能达观派与失望派构成了剧烈坚持的两大阵营。
 
  The first group argues that the world is in the middle of a technology-driven renaissance.
 
  达观主义者宣称,国际正处于技能驱动的复兴中。
 
  Tech CEOs compete with each other for superlatives.
 
  各技能巨子相互竞争,力求推出最优异的产品。
 
  Business professors say that our only problem will be what to do with the people when the machines become super-intelligent.
 
  商学院教授则以为,仅有需求忧虑的是,当机器开展为超级智能,人类该怎么应对。
 
  The pessimists retort that this is froth:a few firms may be doing wonderfully but the economy is stuck.
 
  失望主义者则反讥道,以上言辞不过是高谈弘论:尽管少部分公司确实运转得不错,但经济已堕入阻滞。
 
  Larry Summers of Harvard University talks about secular stagnation.
 
  哈佛大学的拉里.萨默斯就此提出了“长时刻阻滞”。
 
  Tyler Cowen,of George Mason University,says that the American economy has eaten all the low-hanging fruits of modern history and got sick.
 
  乔治梅森大学的泰勒.科文以为,美国经济已耗尽现代史上全部垂手而得的效果而趋于病态。
 
  Until recently the prize for the most gloom-laden book on the modern economy has gone to Robert Gordon of Northwestern University.
 
  唱衰现代经济势的闻名之作是1月出书的西北大学罗伯特.戈登写的。
 
  In“The Rise and Fall of American Growth”,published in January,Mr Gordon argues that the IT revolution is a minor diversion compared with the inventions that accompanied the second industrial one—electricity,motor cars and aeroplanes—which changed lives profoundly.
 
  戈登在《美国兴衰》一书中指出,第2次工业革新中,电力、轿车和飞机都曾给日常日子带来天翻地覆的改变,而IT革新不过是小巫见大巫。
 
  The current information upheaval,by contrast,is merely altering a narrow range of activities.
 
  近年来,人们获取信息的方法发生了剧变,但也仅仅是让本来就为数不多的方法增添了些新花样。
 
  Now a new book,“The Innovation Illusion”by Fredrik Erixon and Bjorn Weigel,presents a still more pessimistic vision.
 
  弗雷德里克.埃里克松和比约?恩格尔现发行了他们的新书《立异的假象》,书中表达了更为失望的观点。
 
  Messrs Erixon and Weigel write that the very engine of capitalist growth,the creative destruction described by Joseph Schumpeter,is kaput.
 
  他们在书中写道,资本主义开展的“中心引擎”(約瑟夫.熊彼特曾称其为创造性损坏)已运作异常。
 
  Aside from a handful of stars such as Google and Amazon,they point out,capitalism is ageing fast.
 
  他们指出,除了如谷歌和亚马逊等少量精英公司仍开展杰出,资本主义整体已敏捷老化。
 
  Europe’s 100 most valuable firms were founded more than 40 years ago.
 
  纵观欧洲100家大公司,绝大部分都树立在40年前。
 
  Even America,which is more entrepreneurial,is succumbing to middle-aged spread.
 
  即使是更具创业精力的美国也难以抵御公司中年化现象的延伸。
 
  The proportion of mature firms,or those 11 years old or more,rose from a third of all firms in 1987 to almost half in 2012,and the number of startups fell between 2001 and 2011.
 
  从1981到2012年间,资深公司(已树立11年或更长时刻)由占公司总数的1/3上升到占一半左右,而2001到2011年间,新公司数量则一向下降。
 
  People who extol free markets often blame such stagnation on excessive regulation.
 
  自由商场的支持者常常把这种经济阻滞归咎于政府操控过多。
 
  That has certainly played its part.
 
  这种说法确实有必定道理。
 
  But the authors argue that stagnation has most to do with the structure of capitalism itself.
 
  但是,《立异的假象》的作者则以为,这种阻滞与资本主义本身的结构有更大联系。
 
  Companies are no longer actually owned by adventurous capitalists but by giant institutions such as the Vanguard Group(with more than$3 trillion under management)which constantly buy and sell slivers of ownership for anonymous investors.
 
  事实上,公司已不再由具冒险精力的资本家操控,而是由像前锋集团(the Vanguard Group)这种大型组织掌控。该公司财物逾3万亿美元,不断为匿名出资者购买和出售一切权。
 
  These institutions are more interested in predictable returns than in enterprise.
 
  比起商业开展,他们更垂青可猜测报答。
 
  It is not all Mark Zuckerbergs at the top,the authors posit.
 
  作者以为并非一切高层都像马克.扎克伯格相同。
 
  The big firms are answering the call for predictability by hiring corporate bureaucrats.
 
  大都大公司都雇佣企业管理者来满意出资者对可猜测性的渴求。
 
  These people shy away from risky investments in new technology.
 
  这些企业管理者往往会防止对新技能进行风险出资。
 
  After rising relentlessly as a share of GDP in 1950-2000,investment in IT began declining in the early 2000s.
 
  在1950到2000年间,IT职业出资曾作为GDP的一部分持续增长,但于2000年前期开端阑珊。
 
  Instead of shaking up markets,bureaucratic CEOs focus on squeezing the most out of their sunk costs and fight to defend niches.
 
  比起推翻商场,官僚型CEO更注重于尽可能紧缩淹没本钱和保卫利基商场。
 
  They hoard cash,buy back their firms’shares and reinforce their positions by merging with former rivals.
 
  他们经过储藏现金,回购自家公司股份以及与竞争对手兼并来稳固公司的商场位置。
 
  The gloomsters’case is true to some extent but it is overstated.
 
  这些失望人士的言辞在必定程度上是对的,但仍是夸大其词了。
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